Nintendo Projects 15 Million Switch 2 Sales Despite Strong Market Demand

Nintendo’s forecast of 15 million Switch 2 units sold by March 2026 reflects a cautious stance amid potential tariff impacts on their business strategy. The gaming giant’s conservative projection, while exceeding the original Switch’s first-year performance, has sparked discussions among analysts who believe the company might be underestimating potential success.

Key Takeaways:

• Sales projection of 15 million units exceeds original Switch’s launch performance
• Uncertainty around U.S. tariff rates influences conservative forecast
• Pre-order demand has been exceptionally high since April 24, 2025
• Retail price set at $449.99 in the U.S. market
• Analysts predict potential for 20 million units in first-year sales

Understanding Nintendo’s Conservative Approach

Nintendo’s strategic planning shows careful consideration of market variables. The company’s operating profit forecast of ¥320 billion ($2.2 billion) sits below analyst expectations, highlighting their measured approach. This strategy aligns with the gaming industry’s current market dynamics, where careful forecasting becomes crucial for sustained success.

Impact of Tariff Uncertainties

The tariff situation presents a significant variable in Nintendo’s planning. Based on U.S. tariff rates as of April 2025, the company maintains flexibility to adjust its strategy. These external factors have created an interesting parallel with recent gaming innovations and achievements that required similar adaptive approaches.

Pre-Order Performance and Launch Strategy

The Switch 2’s pre-order phase has demonstrated remarkable consumer interest since its April 24 launch. Despite high demand potentially affecting U.S. release date deliveries, Nintendo maintains its June 5, 2025 release schedule. This launch strategy mirrors the success seen in other recent Nintendo ventures.

Market Analysis and Future Potential

AB Bernstein’s projection of 20 million units in the first year suggests significant upside potential. For those interested in automating their gaming content strategy, automation tools like Latenode can help track and analyze these market trends effectively. Daniel Ahmad from Niko Partners indicates Nintendo might revise forecasts upward if external conditions improve.

Game Sales Projections

With 45 million game sales projected for the current financial year, Nintendo demonstrates confidence in their software lineup. This projection considers both new titles and continued support for existing games, creating a balanced portfolio for the Switch 2’s launch window.